Twenty-five point nine. That is how far past the line Washington at Golden State cleared the Sunday OVER — final score 90-82, total 172, market line 146.1. The bot's only HIGH-confidence call of the night at half stake per the Issue 42 default rule. Plus 0.45 units. The framework did what the framework is supposed to do: identify the single high-conviction spot, size to the default half stake, take the win.
The rest of Sunday's slate was PASS territory and the framework held.
Vegas at Toronto (Tempo home game). Spread STRONG TOR at plus 11.2 — no HIGH tier — PASS. Vegas won 109-83. Total STRONG UNDER 183.6 — game went 192, OVER. Two losses avoided.
Minnesota at Seattle. Spread STRONG SEA — no HIGH tier — PASS. Seattle won 105-102. Total STRONG UNDER 174.3 — game went 207, OVER by 33. Loss avoided.
New York at Dallas. Spread STRONG NYL — no HIGH tier — PASS. Dallas won 99-98 (outright). Total MODEST UNDER — game went 197, OVER. Loss avoided.
Framework net Sunday: plus 0.45u on the single sized pick. The other three PASSED games would have been a bloodbath if we had chased tiers.
Cumulative through Sunday per the grader.
Spread STRONG LEAN: 46-41-1 (52.9 percent, plus 0.93 percent ROI). Still positive. Still the only market tier that has held up over the sample.
Total STRONG LEAN: 43-55 (43.9 percent, minus 16.23 percent ROI). Worse than it was Friday. The pattern of the last two weeks has been STRONG UNDERs getting torched by high-pace games with quick tempo and shortened rotations. Sunday's Vegas-Toronto and Minnesota-Seattle games are examples: both were STRONG UNDER cards, both went well over.
Spread MODEST LEAN: 22-23 (48.9 percent, minus 6.67 percent ROI). Coin flip with vig drag. Consistent.
Total MODEST LEAN: 27-28 (49.1 percent, minus 6.28 percent ROI). Same coin flip.
The read on totals STRONG. This is now the biggest problem in the framework. We have a 98-pick sample at minus 16.23 percent ROI — that is not variance, that is a signal that the bot's totals model has a directional bias against the current WNBA pace environment. When Sunday's OVER HIGH hit, it was the exception to the pattern, not the return to form. Every totals HIGH tier pick going forward continues at half stake per Issue 42, but the internal framework note is that if this ROI drops another two percentage points I would recommend moving totals HIGH to quarter stake and totals STRONG to PASS entirely until the pace-projection component is retuned.
Right now the framework is: totals HIGH at half stake, totals STRONG PASS by default, totals MODEST PASS. That was already in place and I am flagging that the STRONG PASS default is looking increasingly justified rather than conservative.
Tonight. Zero games on the board. True rest day. Nothing to size.
Tomorrow. Five games according to the schedule feed: Chicago at New York, Connecticut at Indiana, Vegas at Washington, Minnesota at Seattle, Phoenix at Las Vegas. The picks file will populate overnight. The framework will apply the same discipline: follow bot HIGH picks at half stake unless conviction architecture fires (rare, three conditions required) or a hard brake fires (PASS).
The Tempo. Jordan's Tempo Report has the full recap of Sunday's 26-point loss to Vegas. Wilson was back, the Aces looked like the Aces, and the Tempo dropped to 13-11 with the playoff picture tightening. The Tempo do not play again until Friday.
Rest day. Long weekend of grading. Back Tuesday morning with tomorrow's picks review.
[ End Report ]
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