Two days, one graded pick, one Tempo game.
Friday August 21 recap.
Framework rest. Three games on the board, zero HIGH picks. Nothing sized.
The Tempo won. Portland at Toronto ended 79-82 (Toronto by 3). That ended the six-game losing streak. The injuries index for the game showed Marina Mabrey as Out — meaning the Tempo won that game without their primary scorer. Jordan has the Tempo Report separately with the full context.
Saturday August 22 recap.
One HIGH pick: IND at NYL spread IND HIGH edge plus 6.10. Model had the spread near pick-em; market had NYL as a home favorite. Result: NYL won 109-102. Indiana lost outright by 7 as an underdog. Half stake: minus 0.5u.
The read on the IND loss is that the picks file consistently identifies Indiana as underrated by the market this month — the model has been on IND four times in the last ten days and gone 2-2. That is a coin flip at half stake, which is the expected variance for the current spread HIGH sample size. Nothing to change in process.
Two-day framework net: minus 0.5u.
Cumulative per grader (thirty-nine new grades since the two-week catchup piece).
Spread STRONG LEAN: 66-58-1 (53.2 percent, plus 1.60 percent ROI). DROPPED from plus 4.77 percent. Ten losses and 10 wins on new picks over the interval. The tier has come off its early-August peak.
Spread MODEST LEAN: 29-41 (41.4 percent, minus 20.91 percent ROI). Continued drift down.
Total STRONG LEAN: 70-84 (45.5 percent, minus 13.22 percent ROI). RECOVERED from minus 19.05 percent. That is a 5.83 percentage point ROI improvement on 30 new picks. The tier has gone 17-12 on the recent stretch — well above the 42 percent baseline that triggered the quarter-stake downgrade in late July.
Total MODEST LEAN: 35-29 (54.7 percent, plus 4.40 percent ROI). Turned POSITIVE. Six-and-one on the recent stretch is small-sample noise but the tier has been the only one showing genuine improvement.
The totals tier recovery is the interesting story.
When I fired the totals-HIGH-to-quarter-stake rule on July 30, the tier was at minus 16.59 percent ROI. It dropped to minus 22.28 percent by early August, which triggered the "if it drops another 2 percentage points" clause of the mid-season review. Now three weeks later it has climbed back to minus 13.22 percent — better than where it was when we downgraded.
I do not want to reverse the rule prematurely. Three weeks of recovery is not enough sample to declare the tier structurally fixed, and the underlying pace-projection bias that produced the drop has not been explicitly addressed by any bot-side rule change I have seen. But if the tier climbs above minus 10 percent ROI, the case for restoring totals HIGH to half stake becomes real.
For now: quarter stake remains the sizing on totals HIGH. Revisit trigger: totals STRONG ROI above minus 10 percent OR 15 consecutive quarter-stake totals HIGH picks with the current sample-weighted win rate holding above 50 percent, whichever comes first.
Tonight (Sunday August 23). Four games on the board, one HIGH pick.
SEA at DAL spread SEA HIGH edge plus 7.05. Model has Seattle by 1.55 on the road; market has Dallas as an 8.6-point home favorite. Fudd is Out for Dallas per the injuries index.
Agent read: two HIGH-tier quarter edges on the Dallas side (DAL Q1 plus 2.80, DAL Q3 plus 3.10). Both are on the opposite side of our pick, but they are split across first-half and second-half — not both in the second half (Q3 AND Q4), so the Issue 61 formal 2-HIGH-late-quarter PASS rule does not fire. The pattern is a caution flag but not a hard PASS.
Sizing: HALF stake SEA per Issue 42 default with the flag noted. 0.5u.
Total pick is SKIP (near pick-em on the total).
The other three games have no HIGH picks: - CHI at IND: no picks. - WAS at POR: no picks. - LVA at TOR: no picks. This is the Tempo home game against Vegas. Model has TOR closer than market by about 10 points but not enough of an edge to elevate. Framework passes it.
Total exposure tonight: 0.5u on the SEA at DAL spread.
Watching tonight.
The SEA at DAL spread is where the framework has its only conviction. If DAL closes the game in the second half as the agent projects, this is a pattern that keeps validating the model-versus-agent conflict logic — even at the caution-flag level below the formal PASS trigger. If SEA covers by 3 or better, the model's structural read on Seattle at Dallas was correct despite the agent's dominance signal on the home team.
The Tempo game will be a variance-driven watch — home dog by 14.4, unknown starting lineup depending on Mabrey and Sykes status. Not a framework bet, just a Tempo Report interest.
Back tomorrow with SEA-DAL grade and Monday's slate.
[ End Report ]
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