I watched both Seattle Storm games from week one. Twice each. Once for the score, once for the tape. Wednesday night the Storm come to Coca-Cola Coliseum without Ezi Magbegor, who was their best player and best rim protector. The Tempo are 0-1 and just spent three days in practice. The matchup writes itself. Here is the film.
Start with what we know about Seattle's 2025 baseline. They were a strong defensive team (4th in defensive rating) and a weak rebounding team (12th in offensive rebound rate, 12th in defensive rebound rate). They were also a turnover machine offensively in the good sense — first in the league at not turning the ball over. The shape of the 2025 Storm was steal possessions, force misses, win on the margins, lose the rebounding battle anyway.
Take Magbegor off that roster and the defense gets worse. She had 11.8 defensive matchups per game last season at 40.3 percent allowed field goal percentage, which is elite rim protection. The Storm without her are still a decent defensive team because Lexie Brown and Natisha Hiedeman defend the perimeter well. But the second-line interior defender behind Magbegor is Stefanie Dolson, who is 33 years old and not what she was in Chicago. Behind Dolson is Dominique Malonga, the rookie. Behind Malonga is Awa Fam. None of those three can hold position against a determined post player for a full possession.
This is the matchup Toronto needs. Here is why.
In the opener against Washington, Toronto shot 27 percent from the field. Mabrey took 18 shots and scored 27 points. The next-highest scorer was Sykes with 14 on 18 shots. Together they were 10 of 36. That is a Mabrey-iso offense that the Mystics' frontcourt of Iriafen, Austin, and Betts could afford to collapse on because the help defense had real interior presence. Iriafen pulled down 16 rebounds. Austin added 11. That is 27 boards from the two Washington frontcourt players against a Tempo group that had Temi Fagbenle for 16 minutes and one rebound.
On Wednesday, Toronto is playing against Seattle's interior backups. Dolson got 22 minutes in the opener and pulled down 4 rebounds. Malonga played 12 and got 3. Fam was on the floor for 9 minutes and didn't grab one. The Storm's frontcourt minutes are being absorbed by players who individually finished the opening week with fewer total rebounds than Iriafen had in a single half against Toronto.
So the question is whether the Tempo's offense can take advantage of weaker interior defense even if the help collapses get there. The case for says yes. Mabrey at the elbow against Dolson is a mismatch. Sykes attacking the second-line bigs is a mismatch. The Tempo had eight offensive rebounds in the opener despite playing without a real frontcourt anchor, which says they crash the glass even when undersized. Against Seattle they should crash even more.
The concern is whether Toronto's offense is actually broken or whether game one was just bad shooting variance against a good defensive frontcourt. 27 percent shooting is brutal even with good shot quality. Nyara Sabally was 3 of 8. Conde was 0 of 5. Rice was 0 of 3. Key was 0 of 1. The role players combined to shoot 4 of 22. That is variance, not scheme. Some of it normalizes Wednesday against worse defenders.
The matchup I want to watch most. Brittney Sykes on Flau'jae Johnson. Johnson is Seattle's rookie scorer, the eighth pick from the 2026 draft. She put up 20 points in 22 minutes in the Storm's opener and 16 points last night in the CON win. Johnson is a scoring guard who plays at pace. Sykes is the best perimeter defender on Toronto's roster and was the Tempo's only player who kept Sonia Citron under 30 in the opener. If Sykes can hold Johnson to 14 or fewer, the Storm's offense collapses to the Hiedeman-Brown-Dolson axis and Toronto wins this game.
What I expect Brondello has installed. The opener's biggest tactical failure was the absence of a designed clutch action involving Sykes or Allemand. The Tempo ran four offensive possessions in the final two minutes and three of them ended in Mabrey iso. With three days of practice, the staff has had time to install at least one designed action for Sykes off a screen and at least one for Allemand in a pick-and-roll. Whether those show up in the fourth quarter is the test.
Predictions. Seattle scored 91 points against Connecticut on the road last night without their best player. They will score in the low 80s in Toronto. The Tempo need to shoot better than 27 percent to score 80, which is doable against weaker defenders. The total stays in the low 160s, not the 173 the model has it at. The spread is interesting — the market currently has Toronto as 1.5-point underdogs at home. The model has Toronto favored by 2. We will publish a Game Plan Card with the final number tomorrow morning.
The Tempo Report drops Wednesday morning. I will be back with a recap on Thursday. Until then, watch the rebounding number. If Toronto wins the boards by five or more, they win this game. If they lose the boards again, the offense has to be elite, which it has not been yet.
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